Lead institution:
Zhejiang University – China
Climate change and anthropogenic activities are pushing deltas and estuarine marine protected areas toward critical ecological regime shifts.
The project will employ an integrated framework of tipping point theory and geospatial models to empirically analyze historical trends in the carrying capacity of coastal ecosystems and generate multi-scenario projections.
The goal is to identify key driving factors, establish robust early-warning and resilience indicators, and reveal the underlying multi-factor mechanisms of ecosystem regime shifts. The outcomes will provide both a methodological framework for ecosystem regime shift research and science-based tools to inform marine carrying capacity warnings, ecological management in globally representative deltas and marine protected areas, and land-sea spatial planning.
Start Date: 3/1/2026
End Date: 2/28/2030
Lead Contact: Guanqiong Ye (gqy@zju.edu.cn, jiangqutu@zju.edu.cn)
